Weather Forecasts

Using Weather Forecasts

Weather, tides and currents determine if, when and where to we sail. Obtaining, understanding and using forecasts are fundamental to our safety at sea by minimising risk – you will never avoid all risks when sailing. In fact, I would argue that a modicum of risk is what makes sailing so enjoyable.

Most of us making short coastal passages use weather forecasts for immediate decisions such as whether or not to go to our next, planned destination. Forecasts for the next few days are, in some senses more important in such decisions as

• whether the planned destination is sensible or not;
• is there a better destination or
• should we stay put.

Using forecasts for the next few days, coastal sailors should usually be able be to avoid being in the wrong place at the wrong timel  in sailing terms, to avoid being in a port or anchorage that they do not want to be in, in weather that they do not want to go out in.

Weather forecasting has improved enormously over recent years and planning up to 5 days ahead can be undertaken with some confidence. Met Office scientists tell me that a 5 day forecast in 2011 is as good as a 24 hour forecast in 1950.

Towards the end of a cruise sailors should try to avoid being under pressure to make a passage in unsuitable weather.Similarly, on a rally, skippers should resist pressures to be at a port just to meet the organisers’ plans. In both cases such pressures can lead to bad seamanship. The safety of a vessel is the responsibility solely of the skipper; a boat should only go to sea when the skipper and crew deem it to be sensible.

For those on ocean passages, the forecasts for the next few days give warnings of the need to

• rig storm sails,
• check sea anchors, warps to trail astern and
• prepare crew and boat.

 As they say, to be forewarned is to be forearmed

 

To learn about forecasts and their use see Frank Singleton's site.